Climate Change

The Earth is not a safe place to live. Over the course of its ~4.5 billion year history, it has experienced several mass extinction events including asteroid impacts, unusual volcanic activity, changes in the chemical composition of its surface and atmosphere, ice ages and other naturally occurring phenomenon.

We are currently in the midst of potentially another major mass extinction event. However for the first time in history it’s being engineered by Earth’s inhabitants.

Man-made climate change is by far the biggest story of our time, and every literate person has an obligation to educate themselves on this topic.  As someone who studied the sciences in high school and university, the logic behind climate change has always been quite obvious to me. But if you are in the skeptical camp or doubtful about the seriousness of the issues, Joseph Romm’s book ‘Climate Change – What Everyone Needs to Know’ will very likely change your mind.

If you are avoiding books on climate change because you think it’s a hoax or a conspiracy, or you don’t feel any of its effects today, consider that 97 out of 100 actively publishing climate scientists agree that there is overwhelming evidence for man-made climate change. The 1980s were the warmest decade on record on Earth’s surface, and was topped by the 1990s. More recently, 2014 became the hottest year on record after 2010 and was then topped by 2015 and then again by 2016! Temperature rise of this magnitude, and at this rate, is unprecedented in Earth’s history and cannot be explained by natural causes. In fact, based on the solar cycle, the Earth should currently be undergoing a cooling phase.

Perhaps the most direct evidence for man-made climate change comes from satellite measurements that show significantly less heat escaping the Earth’s surface at the particular wavelengths that carbon dioxide absorbs heat. If the heat waves aren’t escaping to outer space, they must be reflecting back to earth after being absorbed by the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

When several observations over a significant period of time all converge to the same conclusion, to ignore such a conclusion is a-scientific. It is a denial of the system of knowledge that makes the world around us possible.

So what’s the big deal if the Earth warms a few degrees? After all a 2 degree or even a 4 degree increase doesn’t sound that severe. Well it turns out that while the Earth’s surface will on average get warmer by a few degrees, there will be more severe local / regional variances that will make life uninhabitable in many of the world’s most densely populated regions.

For example on our current trajectory of a 4 degree Celsius warming, vast swathes of the United States, Brazil, Africa, Middle East, Southeast Asia and Australia and Europe will routinely suffer severe drought. With dropping crop yields, feeding the world will become increasingly challenging. Famine and military conflict are the most likely outcome. Millions of people will be displaced from coastal cities as a result of rising sea levels. Hurricanes will become more frequent and stronger (they draw energy from ocean warmth), snow storms and rain storms are likely to become more intense (warmer climate = increased precipitation). In essence, climate change will likely have a bigger impact on humanity than inventions like the internet. And I feel almost no one is adequately prepared.

Below are a few points I learned from the book that I thought were particularly interesting:

• There are number of self-reinforcing / feedback loops in the climate change process that risk an acceleration of global warming beyond current expectations. For example melting ice sheets create a feedback loop due to the reflective properties of ice. Less ice => less heat reflected from the earth’s surface => greater warming => even more ice melting. Another such loop results from the melting of permafrost in arctic regions which releases methane (produced as part of the decomposition of organic matter), a gas that is 30 times better than carbon dioxide at trapping heat.
• Some of the most extreme climate events will occur when global warming coincides with natural climatic variations such as El Nino – La Nina cycle. For example during the El Nino of 2010, 20 countries measured all-time record high temperatures. Pakistan experienced the hottest ever temperature recorded in history (53.5 celcius) and Arctic atmospheric circulation became the most turbulent in 145 years of record keeping.
• A lot of the coastal areas you are familiar with such as Miami are doomed. It is not a question of if, but when. Investing in a coastal property at this point in time is extremely risky
• High temperatures have a significant impact on worker productivity. Research on this topic indicates that worker productivity drops 2% with every 1 degree temperature increase (indoors) above 25 degrees Celcius. In parts of the world that cannot afford air conditioning, the loss of productivity from global warming will likely exceed the economic losses from all other factors combined 
• 25% of the carbon dioxide emitted by humans dissolves in ocean water to create carbonic acid. Based on current measurements, the oceans are acidifying at the fastest rate in over 300 million years. This change in the chemical composition of ocean water is likely to cause mass extinction of marine life if it continues, destroying biodiversity and a major food source for the human population 
• Climate change may already be driving political / military conflict. A 2015 study concluded that climate change played a major role in triggering the civil war in Syria (and the creation of ISIS). The region experienced the worst long-term drought and crop failures from 2006 – 2010 in all of recorded history of the Fertile Crescent. ~800,000 people had their livelihoods destroyed 
• In 2008 a U.S. intelligence analyst estimated that military conflict will escalate in the mid-2020s as “droughts, food shortages and scarcity of fresh water will plague large swathes of the globe, from northern China to the Horn of Africa”. This will trigger mass migrations and political upheaval. 
• There is a major misunderstanding regarding carbon dioxide balances in the atmosphere and their relationship to emissions (even in knowledgeable / sophisticated circles). Think about it like the balance of water in a bath tub. As the long as the rate of water inflow (CO2 emissions) is greater than the rate of water outflow (CO2 absorbed by plants / trees etc.), the water level in the tub will increase. A lot of people assume that holding emissions constant at current levels is sufficient, but it’s not. The water is already flowing much faster than it’s draining. To stabilize CO2 levels in the atmosphere deep cuts to current emissions are required, and we need to plant a lot more trees to increase the ‘drainage’.

Regardless of where you live, what you do and your socioeconomic status, climate change is going to significantly impact your life and the lives of the ones you love. Understanding the science behind climate change is a good first step towards preparing yourself for its consequences. The second step is figuring out what all of us can do (even if its small) on a daily basis to help save our planet for the generations to come. Joseph Romm’s book is a great guide to get started on both.

Lee Kuan Yew

“China is not going to become a liberal democracy; if it did, it would collapse”

“Multi-culturalism will destroy America”

“India is not real country. Instead, it is 32 separate nations that happen to be arrayed along the British rail line”

These are just a few of the several controversial claims made by Lee Kuan Yew, the founding father of Singapore and its prime minister from 1959 to 1990. In the span of a few decades he transformed a poor, corrupt city-state into a western-style economic success. His wisdom and insights on geopolitics have been sought by leaders on every corner of the world stage, from several U.S. Presidents to the CEOs of large multi-national corporations. This book allows us to access some of these insights through excerpts from Lee’s speeches and interviews. Each chapter covers an important topic in global affairs including the future of China, the U.S. and India, globalization, democracy and economic growth. The book concludes with a summary of Lee’s political philosophy.

I found some of Lee’s commentary on China and Sino- U.S. relations to be particularly interesting and contrary to my existing beliefs and notions on this topic. While he concedes that China intends to become the greatest power in the world, he argues that the Chinese are in no rush to get there. The Chinese realize that becoming a super-power comes with significant responsibilities and that contesting U.S. military strength is a futile endeavor at present. They want to avoid the mistakes made by Germany, Japan and Russia in the past (i.e. the World Wars, the Cold War etc.). Lee believes that China’s goal for the next few decades is to continue strengthening its economy, expanding economic influence and soft power in the region. Avoiding confrontation is important.

Lee also believes that Western-style democracy goes against China’s 5000-year old history. China has experienced several breakdowns into chaos, disorganization and warlordism when central power was weakened or lost. Stability and prosperity has thrived only under strong central control and authoritarianism. For this reason he believes it is important for the Communist Party to maintain its monopoly on power for the foreseeable future. The Chinese people understand this and will prefer to err on the side of caution in this area. Those who predict a democratic revolution in China are misguided.

On the topic of Sino- U.S. relations, Lee claims that military confrontation is unlikely due to the enormous risks this would present for both nations. However he cautions U.S. leaders against a tone of condescension and a belief in culture superiority. While he admits that U.S. style democracy, freedom of speech and individualism are a large part of America’s success, he believes it is naïve and myopic to think that these values can be imposed on a 1000+ year old culture and peoples. To Lee, American ideals and democracy are theories; they are far from universally applicable to all societies and cultures (as evidenced by the numerous examples of failed democracies).

By adhering to a ‘holier than thou’ attitude, the U.S. risks China emerging from its growth phase a few decades in the future with a sense of bitterness towards America. And there is no guarantee that the Chinese leaders of that generation, who are likely to be less in-sync with the lessons from China’s violent past, will continue the non-confrontational approach of the present. He advises American leaders to show respect vs. condescension and to adopt a tone of engagement vs. isolation.

On America, Lee heaps praise but with a heavy dose of caution. He points to America’s entrepreneurial spirit, risk-taking culture, freedom of expression, individualism and multi-culturalism as a unique and unbeatable combination of traits that will allow Americans to maintain their dominance on the world stage for many years to come. However, he points out that this combination of qualities also comes with certain side-effects or negative externalities, many of which have been ignored for far too long by politicians and business leaders.

For example he argues that an intensely competitive and individualistic society can breed envy against the elite, apathy towards ethical considerations in the pursuit of material gains, a constant sense of discontentment and loneliness. It can also lead to the erosion of family values, as evidenced by the high rates of divorce and single parenthood in Western societies. Without appropriate redistribution mechanisms, wealth inequality can grow and rally the forces of xenophobia, isolationism and populism. Complete freedom of expression can lead to the over-sexualization of media, the spread of ‘fake news’ and general decline in the quality of information available to the public. An over-emphasis on individual rights can lead to a law and order system that often protects criminals and miscreants; Lee refers to this as the ‘over-protection’ of human rights. He also criticizes the American presidential system, which unlike the parliamentary system can be more easily manipulated by tv appearances and campaigning. Finally, he points to the danger of America becoming more ‘European’ through the expansion of entitlement spending.

Looking at America today, a lot of Lee’s analysis appears prescient. The rise of Donald Trump (and the forces of populism), the move towards isolationism and rising inequality are exactly what Lee had feared. America’s attempts to topple and replace foreign dictatorships with Western-style democracy have also mostly failed. There is a danger of America losing its standing as the world’s economic, military and moral leader as it threatens to walk away from century old alliances, refuses to condemn Russia’s actions in Eastern Europe and ignores the enormous perils of climate change.

When it comes to political ideology, Lee is a pragmatist. He is not fixated on a particular theory of the world or society. Instead, he believes every society and country needs to develop its own unique solution to maximize the happiness and contentment of its people. The solution will vary from country to country depending on history, culture, geography etc.

He is a believer in capitalism, but recognizes the importance of the government’s role in providing equal opportunity. He views people as fundamentally different in terms of their mental and physical capabilities (which he claims are largely genetically determined). In order for society to succeed, we must provide proper incentives for the smartest people to work hard and take risks. But we must also provide equal opportunity and a social safety net to the less gifted.

While I agree with most of Lee’s analysis, I am not sure I agree with him on the idea of total moral relativism when it comes to issues like human rights, freedom of speech and democracy. For example, does China not deserve opprobrium for its treatment of Liu Xiaobo? Is it not a fundamental right to be able to express your opinions freely? Should people continue to have no say in who governs them just because that is what has worked historically?

I understand that every country is different. And what works for America may not be the best path for China. However, I believe that the rise of Western societies teaches us that there are certain ideas regarding freedom and human rights that we should all aspire to. And while a country’s history and culture can often make it painful and disruptive to evolve in this direction, the hard work is necessary to improve human welfare and well-being around the world. Change is never easy. And invading a country and toppling its leaders has proven to be a recipe for disaster. However change from within is difficult as well. Entrenched political interests are incentivized to prevent change which will upset the power structures that sustain them. This is why external influence and pressure, while not always successful, is necessary. It can be the catalyst to empower and mobilize the internal forces that are ultimately responsible for long-lasting change.

 

 

The Rise and Fall of American Growth

“We can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics” – Robert Solow

I picked up Robert J. Gordon’s “The Rise and Fall of American Growth” after reading about it on numerous prominent finance and economics blogs. At 650+ pages, this book is a major time commitment. However I am glad I read it. The book’s subject matter lies at the heart of one of the most important debates in economics today: will the developed world be able to innovate its way out of the current low-growth malaise, or is economic stagnation here to stay? Gordon’s answer is that ‘secular stagnation’ is most likely a real phenomenon in America. He argues that the high growth rates experienced in the United States during the 20^th century were a one-time event, a historical anomaly.

During the period 1870 – 1970, the United States benefited from a series of inventions that led to an economic revolution; standards of living and productivity improved at a rate for which there is little or no historical precedent. Gordon suggests that one of the factors that makes this period unique in history is the extremely broad scope of innovation and technological progress. Almost every aspect of life, from health and sanitation, to transportation, communication and retailing was fundamentally altered.

Americans went from living in poorly constructed homes dimly lit by kerosene lamps, with little or no infrastructure connecting them to the outside world, to brightly lit, fully electrified, networked homes with running water, sanitation systems and appliances such as washing machines, refrigerators, microwaves, telephones etc. all within the span of a few short decades.

The revolution in transportation during the same period lifted the “curse of distance” from common folk. Henry Ford developed the first mass-produced auto-mobile, the Wright Brothers cracked the code behind manned flight and steam engines were replaced by more efficient diesel engines on trains and ships.

Not only did all these inventions arrive within a fairly narrow period in history, they were also rapidly adopted my society. For example Henry Ford’s Model T was first introduced in 1908 and quickly became prized for its low cost, durability, versatility, and ease of maintenance. Assembly-line production allowed the price of the touring car version to be lowered from $850 in 1908 to less than $300 in 1925. By 1926 90%+ of farmers in Iowa and other northern states owned their own automobile or motor truck.

The first U.S. commercial airline flight took place in 1926, carried 200 pounds of mail and covered ~400 miles. Only ten years later, a DC-3 could carry 20+ passengers across North America in only 15 hours. A passenger could leave Los Angeles after work and be in New York in time for lunch the next day. The introduction of jet engines in late 1950s further improved the speed and cost effectiveness of air travel, making commercial flights accessible to most middle class Americans.

In healthcare there was a remarkable improvement in life expectancy due to better sanitation systems, lower infant mortality, the development of the germ theory of disease, the discovery of penicillin, and a general increase in awareness around health issues. The establishment of the Food and Drug Administration (the FDA) greatly improved the quality of food products and ensured that new medical treatments underwent extensive testing and research before being licensed for distribution.

With all these changes, the everyday life of an American in the mid-20^th century was completely upturned from just 50 years prior. An American living in the mid to late-1800s, if transported in time to the 1950s, would find much of his surroundings to be unrecognizable. Watching people flying around in metal tubes at hundreds of miles per hour, he could mistakenly assume he is in a dream.

But Gordon argues that after reaching a peak in the mid-1900s, technological and economic progress slowed. If an American living today was transported to the 1950s, he would find much to be recognizable and familiar. Many household appliances such as washing machines, refrigerators, lighting and plumbing fixtures etc., while having improved in efficiency, have remained remarkably similar in shape, form and functionality for 50+ years.

Air travel today is no faster than it was in the 1960s (though it is much safer!). We still fly at sub-sonic speeds with less leg-room and fewer on-board dining options than our fellow travelers from the 60s and 70s. We also experience significantly longer wait times at airport security checkpoints and on the tarmac.

Aside from passenger comfort and entertainment options, automobiles haven’t seen much improvement either. Outdated road / highway infrastructure and surprisingly slow improvements in road safety have meant that car travel is mired by traffic congestion and accidents. In America alone, nearly 30,000 people die of car accidents every year.

In healthcare, cancer remains one of the leading causes of death in America despite billions of dollars and decades spent on research. The increased focus on specialization in medicine has made it hard for researchers to find funding for inter-disciplinary research that is most likely to lead to major breakthroughs. Many of the medications being approved by the FDA today are simply combinations or enhanced versions of existing drugs. With the fate of Obamacare hanging in the balance, the American multi-payer system remains incredibly complex and inefficient, with millions uninsured. Americans continue to spend more than any other developed nation on healthcare (per capita) with no corresponding benefits in terms of quality of life or improvements in life expectancy.

But what about the Age of Computing?

 Gordon admits that the continuous and exponential rise in computing power over the past couple of decades is unprecedented in the history of technology. But he views the impact of the computing age to be more limited than the industrial revolutions of the past. While we cannot imagine life today without spreadsheets and social networking, he argues that these technologies assist us in fairly limited areas in life: communications and information processing. He points out that total business and household spending on information and communications technology (ICT) amounted to less than 10 per cent of GDP in 2014.

While a techno-optimist would argue that computers and software have revolutionized everything we do from travel (GPS) to manufacturing (robots) and the way we purchase goods and services (e-commerce), Gordon views these improvements as being more incremental than revolutionary. The fact that we have a GPS system in our cars, or computerized cockpits on air planes, is not enough to offset the lack of improvement in the underlying technology and supporting infrastructure. Our planes still fly at sub-sonic speeds from over-crowded runways, and our cars still spend inordinate amounts of time idling in the middle of traffic jams.

In fact, Gordon highlights that the internet age has introduced several negative externalities in the form of hacking, identity theft, internet bullying, decline in attention spans and literacy (especially amongst teenagers) and misuse of data (fake news) that may be hindering productivity and offsetting many of the benefits of technology.

In the first few pages of the book, Gordon points to a chart showing that economic output per person in America grew at an average of 2.41% per year and output per hour grew by 2.82% per year during the period 1920 – 1970. From 1970 to 2014 these growth rates had fallen to 1.77% and 1.62% respectively. Clearly, advancements in computing technology and the internet have not contributed to the kind of productivity gains that have been observed in the past.

Economic growth paints an equally gloomy picture. The U.S. is currently experiencing the slowest economic expansion on record since the 2008 financial crisis (although the period since 2008 also represents the longest period of uninterrupted growth). Gordon argues that if we were to properly ‘adjust’ historical GDP data, the current period of slow economic growth would look even worse.

One of the major arguments made by techno-optimists is that the standard definition of economic growth does not adequately capture the value added by technology. For example real GDP doesn’t capture the benefit of being able to access information from platforms like Wikipedia, or the peace of mind from being able to instantly connect with loved ones during a natural calamity or a terrorist attack through social media. Gordon concedes this point. However he notes that the understatement of GDP is even more severe when we look back beyond the computing age.

Historical real GDP numbers omit many of the most important gains in the standard of living over the past century including the safety and brightness of the electric light bulb, the replacement of outhouses with integrated sewers and sanitation systems, the liberation of women from several forms of household drudgery such as hauling large quantities of fresh water in and waste water out, making clothes and other forms of manual labor that is now replaced by household appliances.

Real GDP doesn’t account for the entertainment value of personal travel (thanks to the automobile and the airplane, the concept of a family vacation was born), improvements in public hygiene from reduced dependence on horses, the reduction in infant mortality (which Gordon argues probably created more welfare value than all the other improvements taken together), the multi-fold increase in selection of goods and services available thanks to modern retailing. And the list goes on and on.

So is Gordon Right?

I think Gordon makes some very compelling arguments in this book, and I think there is a good chance he could be right. However, I also think that history teaches us that progress is unpredictable, and usually happens in a non-linear fashion. We may be in a period of lower growth today. But that doesn’t mean that economic progress couldn’t surprise us in the next decade or the decade after.

Just the way Americans in the late 1800s could never have dreamed of the world their children would be living in a few decades later, we today are probably too myopic to comprehend the full potential of the computing age. Perhaps the progress we have made so far with computers, the internet, smart phones etc. is just the beginning? Perhaps we are on the cusp of a major inflection point in the development of artificial intelligence, virtual reality and quantum computing? These technologies have the potential to transform human societies in ways we cannot imagine right now. What if driverless cars become the new norm? Or we successfully colonized Mars? The possibilities are endless.

There is no doubt that there are great challenges to overcome. Issues like climate change, wealth inequality, government debt, aging demographics, a dysfunctional healthcare and public education system pose severe threats to the American economy. But there is no reason to think that technology won’t be there to solve these problems.

So I would conclude that while I agree with Gordon’s historical analysis, I am less pessimistic about the future. Extrapolating from current trends has often proven to be a poor forecasting technique.

Innovation in the World of Molecules vs. the World of Bits & Bytes

One crucial area which Gordon doesn’t touch on in detail is the impact of government regulation and the financial system on innovation. Peter Thiel has made some very interesting comments about how excessive government regulation and short-term thinking on Wall Street has made it almost impossible to incentivize investment in the world of molecules (i.e. physics-based technologies such as nuclear fusion, flying cars, supersonic travel etc.).

For example even a fairly simple concept like drone delivery has been tough to get off the ground (pun intended) thanks to the slow moving Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). People find it odd that Amazon’s first drone delivery tests were in the U.K., not the U.S. The financial system hasn’t been supportive of innovation either. Wall Street’s obsession with quarterly results and financial ratios has made it hard for management teams to sacrifice short term profitability for ambitious, capital-intensive, long-term projects.

In order to achieve major breakthroughs in areas such as climate change, cancer treatment, transportation, infrastructure, energy etc. the American government and the financial system need to adopt a.) long-term thinking and b.) higher risk tolerance. America’s history is littered with examples to prove the efficacy of this approach. From the development of the first railroads, to sending people to the moon, some of the greatest achievements in America happened only because both the government and the private sector were willing to take significant risks and view success as something more than just ‘return on invested capital’ statistics.

Perhaps the reason that most technological progress today is limited to the world of bits & bytes is because progress in the world molecules has effectively been banned, by both government and finance. In that case Gordon’s thesis might be right, but for the wrong reasons. Food for thought.

100 to 1 in the Stock Market

In the hierarchy of investment related books, this one falls squarely into the ‘must-read’ category. Written in the 1970s by a seasoned Wall Street veteran, 100 to 1 in the stock market is as relevant today as it was upon its publication many decades ago. Having lived through several tumultuous periods in stock market history, including the great depression in the 30s, World War II, the stagflation of the 70s and the nifty-fifty bubble, the author Thomas Phelps is no stranger to volatility. His financial advice to readers after living through such economic turbulence? Invest in stocks! And focus on stock selection and a buy-and-hold approach vs. market timing.

He provides examples of 350+ stocks whose values appreciated 100x or more, turning a $10,000 investment into $1 million or more within a span of a few decades. As an investor, you could have benefited from these incredible returns by identifying the right stocks and holding on.

What is most striking about these examples is that it wouldn’t have mattered whether or not you bought these stocks at the very bottom of their valuation cycle. In some cases, even buying right before a market dislocation would have resulted in a very good investment outcome as long you had selected the right stock and held on through the crash. Take for example Automatic Data Processing, a stock that was first quoted in the Bank and Quotation Record in September 1961 at bid-ask of $4.125 – $4.5. Anyone who bought the stock at the time saw their investment fall ~80% to $0.875 – $1.375 by October 1962. However even if they bought at the 1961 asking price of $4.5 and decided to hold on, the value of their original investment would have appreciated by 156x by 1971.

In another example, an investor could have earned a 100x return several times during a 40 year span. This same stock returned 100 to 1 if held for 40 years, 36 years, 28 years, 20 years and also just 12 years! In other words, the stock price was very volatile during the 40 year period, offering the investor several chances to have caught that 10,000% ride! The astute observer could see that the company’s story was getting stronger with each price cycle.

The skeptical reader might say: “that is all well and good, but how does one go about finding the right stock?” The author openly and frequently admits that there is an element of luck to finding the right stock, and that resisting the urge to take profits when a stock appreciates many-fold is extremely difficult in practice. But the overarching message is that the 100 to 1 stocks are a lot less rare than one might think (as evidenced by the hundreds of examples provided in this book), and for those looking to compound their capital it is worth the effort to try and identify them.

The book provides a number of guiding principles and business / financial characteristics to look out for when searching for the 100 baggers. These should not come as a surprise to any experienced investor, but here are a few just as a reminder / refresher:

• Don’t limit your focus to companies whose sole objective is to make money. Try to find companies that operate ethically and follow a broader philosophy that prioritizes making their customers happy and making the world a better place (my investments in Amazon and JD.com come to mind when I think about this)
  • Good intentions combined with energy and intelligence can make a company a magnet for long-term profits and exponential shareholder returns

• Look for companies that are inventing ways for us to do things we have always wanted to do, but could never do before (example space exploration or genetic engineering) or allowing us to do what we are already doing in a more efficient manner (example smart phones, navigation, artificial intelligence etc.)

• Look for companies that are able to re-invest their earnings at substantially higher than average rates of return due to their competitive advantages, unique business model, financial discipline etc.
  • Some current examples that come to mind are Constellation Software, Precision Castparts (acquired by Berkshire Hathaway), Danaher Corporation

After reading the book I found it hard not to come away with a sense of renewed excitement regarding the stock-picking process (and I have read dozens of investing books!). The ability to make a fortunate is out there for everyone, even those with very modest savings to deploy. If you are patient (we are about talking decades here, not just years!) and willing to devote the time necessary to find the right companies, you could be handsomely rewarded. Obviously this is much more easily said than done. But the same is true for anything else worth achieving in life.

Big History

I’ve always had a love-hate relationship with history. While I am fascinated by the major shifts in technology and human culture and society that have led to the world we see around us today, I also find myself quickly exhausted by the format of the typical history book. Most history authors specialize in a particular region and/or period, and their writings tend to be detailed treatises exploring these areas. It is easy for the casual reader to get bogged down in the minutiae relating to these narrow corridors of history, and drown in detailed chronologies or the nuances surrounding the interpretation of certain historical texts.

Cynthia Brown’s ‘Big History’ was therefore a breath of fresh air in my quest to learn history. In less than 300 pages, the author successfully covers history on the grandest of scales: starting from the Big Bang and the creation of our solar system, to the evolution of biological life and a planet inhabited by 6+ billion people who, in the blink of an eye (on the cosmic timescale), went from living in caves to navigating spacecraft to the moon. The focus of the book is not on individuals or specific historic events, but rather on broad social movements. Names like Alexander the Great and Napolean only get a passing mention while several chapters are devoted to exploring the transition of human societies from hunting and gathering to agriculture and modern city dwelling.

Nested within these broad transitions are inventions, discoveries and cultural changes that propelled human progress on an exponential scale: the discovery of fire, the development of language, the ability to write and reproduce knowledge / information, the rise of organized religion etc. The author spends a good amount of literary space explaining the importance and significance of each.

For me, the most important takeaway from examining this broad historical mosaic is that human progress is neither inevitable, nor linear and it is important not to take our current state of affairs for granted. Civilization has moved forward in fits and starts, sometimes taking one step forward and two steps backwards. It has had to endure both man-made and natural catastrophes including ice ages, dark ages, world wars, plagues, economic and financial crises… the list is long and depressing. The view that we will somehow keep progressing in a straight line, that humanity will resolve its issues and ‘be OK’ appears ignorant and hollow in the backdrop of human history. The last chapter of the book drills home the point by elaborating on a number of man-made risks that, if ignored, threaten the existence of our species and life on Earth in general.

Here are the key “Unanswered Questions” the author proposes the reader ponder on as they leave the shores of history and enter the dark, uncharted waters of the future:

1. Are current world policies leading to a sustainable future or some kind of collapse?
2. Can new technologies alter the long-range tendency of world systems to grow and collapse?
3. Can the market system allocate resources in a sustainable manner? It seems to allocate wealth to the wealthy and increase the poverty of the poor. What can change this structural element of the present system, without which it seems impossible to stabilize population growth?
4. Can industrialized people learn to live in harmony with nature? Can they share with less industrialized people?

When Breath Becomes Air

Paul Kalanithi’s “When Breath Becomes Air” is a poignant reminder of our mortality and the challenging search for meaning in a temporary existence. Paul, a neurosurgeon by profession, was diagnosed with stage IV lung cancer in his mid-30s. With only a few years left to live, he decided to take a break from his career at the Stanford University School of Medicine to focus on his lifelong love for literature and writing. In this book he indulges in the kind of deep philosophical introspection that many of us aspire towards but find hard to accomplish with the constant distractions in our lives.

I was particularly moved by his honest admission towards often viewing patients as mere statistics (“It occurred to me that my relationship with statistics changed as soon as I became one”). He ponders the time when he had ignored a patient’s suffering when other demands pressed, or when he neatly categorized different types of pain into various diagnoses in a coldly utilitarian way. Finding himself in the shoes of his patients, he is able to relate to their emotional and physical trauma more acutely than ever before.

Another key theme is the constant tug of war we all face between living a meaningful life, while being constantly aware of our lack of control / helplessness over its temporality. He writes “Before my cancer was diagnosed, I knew that someday I would die, but I didn’t know when. After the diagnosis, I knew that someday I would die, but I didn’t know when. But now I knew it acutely. The problem wasn’t really a scientific one. The fact of death is unsettling. Yet there is no other way to live”. This is the kind of thinking that all of us experience to some degree (perhaps in a nebulous sense), but which comes into sharp focus through Kalanithi’s writing.

Overall the book left me with a newfound appreciation for the brevity of life and the importance of making the best use of the limited time available to us. How would I live my life differently if I knew this month / week / day was my last? Do I have my priorities straight? Have I spent enough time maintaining and cherishing the relationships that matter most to me? These are some of the questions the reader will be forced to reflect upon as they step into Paul’s shoes and glimpse the reality of death up close.

The Accidental Universe: The World You Thought You Knew

As a high school student I became infatuated with physics because it dealt with the most fundamental questions about reality: How does matter behave? What is it made of? How did the universe begin? Where do we (as humans) stand in relation to the cosmos? There are elements of physics that touch the shores of philosophy.

In ‘The Accidental Universe’, Alan Lightman explores this realm, placing the human experience in the backdrop of modern physics. Each chapter is an essay dedicated to a fundamental property of the universe and what it means for the human perception of reality.

For example, the first chapter is dedicated to a discussion of ‘fine tuning’, i.e. the inquiry into why the physical constants of the universe (e.g. the strength of the nuclear force, or the charge of an electron) seem fine-tuned to support life. Those who adhere to religious beliefs will often point to this as evidence of a God(s). But perhaps the question is irrelevant. Because if the properties of the universe were different, there would be no conscious, sapient life to observe and ask such questions in the first place (Anthropic Principle). Or perhaps we simply live in one of an infinite number of universes (i.e. the multiverse theory) implying that a universe with the conditions necessary to support human life is a mathematical inevitability.

What makes the book stand out is Lightman’s ability to intersperse scientific concepts with beautiful imagery and evocative prose;  starting out in the vast expanse of space and elegantly bringing the story back toward worldly experiences. His writing is beautiful and simple. He can take on scientific complexity while keeping the emotional value of the text intact, a rare combination in this genre of writing.

Young Titan: The Making of Winston Churchill

A lot has been said and written about Winston Churchill. Yet in his book Young Titan, Michael Shelden manages to offer original insights by painting a vivid portrait of Churchill’s early career  (1901 – 1915). This was a tumultuous period in Churchill’s life. During his meteoric rise as a young politician he switched parties, locked horns with some of the most experienced and shrewd statesmen of the time, built a modern navy, authored numerous books and became a husband and a father. There were obstacles around every corner. He faced betrayal from friends, scorn and ridicule for his social agenda (in light of his aristocratic roots) and even threats to his life. Despite all of this Churchill demonstrated remarkable poise and mental strength, rebounding from every setback with increased determination and intellectual energy.

Those who were closest to Churchill during these years perceived the genesis of a personality that had the power to shape history and one that was destined to lead Great Britain. Thanks to Shelden’s extensive research and brilliant writing, we as readers can also momentarily step into the life of this remarkable young man and see up close how the challenges and triumphs during these early years forged the ‘largest human being of our time’.