I have read a number of opinion pieces in various news publications outlining why the implications of Brexit may be far less severe than what is commonly perceived to be the ‘base case’ scenario.
Shock referendums are nothing new in the EU. The Irish rejected the Nice Treaty (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Nice) and Lisbon Treaty (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon) in 2001 and 2008 respectively. In 1992 the Danes voted down the Maastricht treaty (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maastricht_Treaty) and stuck with their decision to have an independent currency. In both cases the prognosticators of gloom and doom were proved wrong. The Irish had a second referendum and voted ‘yes’. The Danes, 25 years later, are alive and kicking (politically and economically).
In the case of Brexit, things are a bit different: A.) Britain is a much larger economy and B.) Britain has decided to leave the EU all together. However, this doesn’t mean a Brexit needs to be as definitive, extreme and ‘set in stone’ as most people believe. In fact, the very magnitude of the impact of a true Brexit is likely to encourage European leaders to find a middle ground, or a soft-exit. Britain is a serious military, economic and diplomatic power and it is in the EU’s best interest to preserve it’s long term relationship by offering some concessions. One possible middle ground could be preserving Britain’s access to the single market (which benefits all relevant parties from an economic point of view), while offering concessions on immigration (i.e. giving the UK more control over their borders). In fact, it was the rejection of exactly this form of a concession on immigration by the EU that forced David Cameron to offer up a Brexit referendum in the first place.
As is often the case in politics, the loudest and most prominent voices on the Brexit issue at the moment are the one’s with the most extreme views: the die-hard Exiters in Britain that want to leave the EU regardless of economic ramifications, and those in the European parliament who want to accelerate Brexit so that they can start the process of ‘punishing’ Britain. I am hopeful that as the dust settles, and tempers cool off, the rational voice of moderation will rise and prevail.
The Pale Blue Dot 